What Will the 2027 Social Security COLA Be?

Current answer: a 3.6%–3.8% planning range, not an official COLA

As of Aug. 4, 2026, the defensible planning range for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is 3.6% to 3.8%. The Senior Citizens League is holding at 3.8%, AARP has published a 3.6% estimate, and independent analyst Mary Johnson is at 3.7% after cutting her prior 4.7% estimate following cooler June inflation data.[1][2][3]

That range is roughly a full percentage point above the 2026 COLA of 2.8%, but it is still only a forecast. SSA has not set the 2027 COLA. The official number is scheduled to be announced on Oct. 14, 2026, after the September CPI data closes the third-quarter measurement period.[4][5]

For budgeting purposes, the clean answer is this: use 3.6%–3.8% for now, do not treat any single dollar example as your promised increase, and expect the increase to apply to January 2027 Social Security payments once SSA issues the final COLA.

Why the forecast cluster is useful, and why it is not final

A tight forecast cluster is worth more than a lone headline number. TSCL, AARP, and Johnson are not publishing the same figure, but their estimates are close enough to give beneficiaries a working bracket before the government number exists.

The temptation is to pick the middle number and move on. That is neat, but Social Security does not average private forecasts. The statute points to a specific inflation measure over a specific time window, and that window is not closed yet.

The legal fixing mechanism is still Q3 CPI-W

The Social Security COLA is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. SSA calculates the percentage increase in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA was determined.[5]

For the 2027 COLA, that means the decisive months are July, August, and September 2026. June can shape forecasts, and it has. It cannot finish the calculation. September has to be reported before SSA can announce the legal figure.

That is the practical distinction beneficiaries and advisors need to keep intact. A projection can be a reasonable planning input. It is not a benefit determination. For the SSI-specific statutory version of the same timing issue, see How the 2027 SSI COLA Increase Is Legally Fixed.

The inflation inputs still open

June explains why the current estimates moved, but it does not settle the year. BLS reported June CPI-W up 3.5% year over year, while energy prices were up 15.7% year over year.[6] Forecast coverage has also pointed to a May CPI-U reading of 4.2% and tariff pressure as reasons the third-quarter path may not be smooth.[1][2]

Those figures matter because CPI-W is the index that fixes the COLA, and energy can move household inflation quickly. They still do not support a precise check increase today. July, August, and September have to be measured as a quarter, not guessed from one month’s report.

What the range means in monthly dollars

The dollar examples in circulation are not interchangeable. They start from different baseline benefit amounts. That is not a scandal; it is arithmetic. It does mean a person should not read a $59, $70, $75, or $77 example as though all of those figures were calculated on the same average check.

For an individual check, the better estimate is percentage-based: take the gross monthly benefit amount and apply the forecast range. A 3.6% increase and a 3.8% increase are close, but on a fixed income the difference is not imaginary. Rent, groceries, caregiver hours, and medical bills are paid in dollars, not in percentage points.

When the increase would show up

SSA’s official COLA announcement is scheduled for Oct. 14, 2026. The increase applies to benefits payable for January 2027.[4]

• Social Security payment dates for January 2027 are Jan. 3, Jan. 13, Jan. 20, and Jan. 27, depending on the beneficiary’s payment schedule.[4]
• SSI recipients are scheduled to receive the January 2027 payment on Dec. 31, 2026, because Jan. 1 is a federal holiday.[4]

The timing point is easy to miss in household budgeting. The COLA is announced in October, but the benefit increase belongs to January payments. A forecast in August does not change a September or October check.

Where the Social Security 2100 Act fits

The Social Security 2100 Act belongs in the 2027 COLA conversation only as legislative context unless and until it is enacted and applicable. H.R. 9519 was introduced on June 29, 2026.[8] The introduced text includes a temporary rule for COLA determinations from 2027 through 2036 that would use the higher of CPI-W or CPI-E.[9]

That would be a different rule from the one SSA normally applies. Available estimates suggest CPI-E would generally lift COLAs modestly: SSA’s Office of the Chief Actuary has estimated a CPI-E provision at about 0.15 percentage point higher on average, and the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare reported that from 1982 through 2014 CPI-E averaged 2.9% while CPI-W averaged 2.7%.[10][11]

Those estimates do not make the 2027 COLA a CPI-E COLA today. The current forecast range of 3.6%–3.8% is based on the existing CPI-W process. A “Social Security 2100 Act COLA projection 2027” headline that skips that distinction is treating a bill as though it were already the operative benefit formula.

Planning status as of Aug. 4, 2026

Use 3.6%–3.8% as the current planning range. Keep each dollar example attached to the source and baseline benefit that produced it. Do not treat the Social Security 2100 Act as controlling the 2027 adjustment unless the legislative status changes.

This is a living forecast record, last verified Aug. 4, 2026. It needs updating when Q3 CPI-W data closes in September and again when SSA issues the official COLA on Oct. 14, 2026.

References

1. Congress Reintroduces Social Security 2100 Act as This Year's COLA Projection Holds at 3.8%, The Senior Citizens League, July 14, 2026.
2. Social Security COLA Preview: Will 2027 Benefits Go Up?, AARP.
3. New Social Security COLA projections released for 2027 adjustment, The Hill.
4. Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information, Social Security Administration.
5. Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA), Social Security Administration Office of the Chief Actuary.
6. Consumer Price Index Summary, June 2026, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7. How Much Will the Social Security 2027 COLA Be? Latest Estimates & Predictions, CNBC Select.
8. H.R.9519 - All Actions, Congress.gov.
9. Social Security 2100 Act, H.R. 9519, Introduced in House, GovTrack.
10. Summary Measures and Graphs: Cost-of-Living Adjustment Provisions, Social Security Administration Office of the Chief Actuary.
11. The CPI-E: A Better Option for Calculating Social Security COLAs, National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.